The Screwball: Giants at a loss how to explain disappointing season


As the playoffs begin next week, we know that baseball will have a new champion because the San Francisco Giants will not be around to defend their World Series title. What does not particularly make sense - especially to the Giants - is why that is the case.


"I can't really answer your question," Giants outfielder Hunter Pence told Sporting News. "You could have a million different theories, but there's no way to pinpoint on one thing. So, I really can't help you."


It's been a disappointing year for the Giants. (AP Photo)


Pence leads the Giants with 25 home runs this season, and one of six San Francisco hitters - along with Brandon Belt, Gregor Blanco, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Marco Scuatro - with at least 400 plate appearances and an OPS+ of better than 100. The only other National League team with six such hitters is the St. Louis Cardinals, who have scored 766 runs to lead the Senior Circuit. The Giants are 11th in the league with 603 runs scored. The Giants scored 718 runs a year ago, when they had a team on-base percentage of .327, and while that figure has fallen to .318 this year, losing more than half a run per game is a much bigger drop than should be expected.


"Almost all year, it seems like, we've faced a lot of adversity and it seems like we haven't caught a break all year," said Madison Bumgarner, the Giants' leader with a 2.77 ERA this year. "So there isn't really one specific time. It's just been a rough year all around."


While the Giants have scored fewer runs, they have given up more - 649 last year, 667 this year - so overall, the swing is 0.83 runs per game to their disadvantage. The 2012 Giants outperformed their Pythagorean won-loss record - the expected record based on their run differential - by six games, which further helps to explain how a 20-game drop in the standings is possible, but still not the why.


"It took a lot last year for us," Bumgarner said. "Everybody had to be perfect. In a lot of ways, on paper, we might not have had the best team, but we played the best all year. We had to have a lot of heart, facing all those elimination games - it says a lot about the guys on this team. This year, for whatever reason, it just hasn't happened that way. Everybody's playing just as hard, and putting their work in, but it's a hard thing to do, a hard thing to repeat anytime. It doesn't happen very often."


It has not happened since the New York Yankees' run of three straight championships from 1998-2000, and it will not happen this year, even though, as Bumgarner added, "It's the same team." The early success of the Yankees in the current playoff system may have obscured the fact that an extra round of playoffs exacts an extra physical toll that can be carried into the following season. The Giants are the sixth defending champion out of the last 11, including the 2011 Giants, to miss the playoffs. Another four defending champs returned to the postseason as wild-card teams, with only the 2009 Phillies following a World Series win with a division title.


"There were definitely a lot of injuries," Pence said. "If you looked at our biggest strength last year, I would say bullpen. Having (Jeremy) Affeldt battling injuries all season long, we lost (Santiago) Casilla for a while - our strength is Affeldt-Casilla-(Sergio) Romo, and also the strength of the speed at the top of our lineup. (Angel) Pagan was a big loss."



Angel Pagan's absence was felt by the Giants. (AP Photo)


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Pagan, the National League leader with 15 triples in 2012, missed three months of this season with a hamstring injury that required surgery. His last game before going on the disabled list was May 25, a 6-5 Giants win over the Colorado Rockies that put San Francisco in a three-way tie for first in the National League West at 27-22. While Pagan was out, the Giants went 32-52, and they have gone 13-11 since he returned on Aug. 30.


"We've got a lot of people healthy now and we're playing somewhat the way we were playing last year, once we got the guys back," Pence said. 'There's a lot of wear and tear on the arms going through a World Series process into the (World Baseball Classic) ... but that's baseball. Injuries happen and you have to overcome them."


It's not all so simple as Pagan's injury submarining the Giants, because as Pence noted, there have been health woes in the bullpen. Compounding those issues, San Francisco's starting pitchers have not gone as deep into games this season as they did last year, averaging 5.86 innings per start compared to 6.16 a year ago - resulting in 30 extra innings for an infirmed bullpen.


"You could say this season was a disappointment," said Pence, who hopes to return to San Francisco as a free agent this winter. "But you could also say that it was a growth and a success. I see the player Brandon Belt's turned into this year, some of the bullpen guys like (Jean) Machi and Sandy Rosario. We found some strengths and we've got a really solid foundation going to next year."


That may sound overly optimistic for a team flirting with last place in the season's final week, but the Giants have bounced back from missing the playoffs as defending champions before - namely, last year.



APP STATION


Before baseball-reference.com existed, Total Baseball was a must-have book on any baseball fan's shelf, a treasure trove of statistics and essays that bridged the gap between The Baseball Encyclopedia and the digital age. Now, there is a Total Baseball app for the iPad that turns a book the size of a small dog into a searchable series of screens on a tablet.


The best part of the app, though, is something that was never part of the book - an archive of more than 8,000 baseball photos from The Rucker Archive and The Associated Press, ranging from Old Hoss Radbourn's era to @OldHossRadbourn's era. The photos are an optional download, and eat up 600 megabytes, but if you're paying $14.99 for the app, this will be the main draw - it is easy to quickly see that regrettable facial hair on the diamond is not the sole domain of the 2013 Boston Red Sox.


The statistical element of the app is limited by the fact that numbers are only updated through the 2012 season. While this limitation means that Total Baseball can be searched offline, and annual updates are promised, any question involving active players requires firing up a browser and looking elsewhere. While having the ability to filter statistics through as many different qualifiers as you want is neat, there is not a whole lot of added utility in finding out that the only player with at least 10 triples, 10 homers, and 30 steals in a season who died in Texas before 1979 was Tris Speaker.


A search of Baseball Reference's Play Index, which costs $36 a year and which the target audience for Total Baseball should already be familiar with, lets you know that there are 24 dead players who fit the statistical criteria - extra clicks would let you know that Speaker is the only one who passed away in Texas. The Play Index also is sortable with full season stats, letting you know that of the 24 dead players who had 28 seasons of 10 triples, 10 homers, and 30 steals, Speaker's 53 doubles for the 1912 Red Sox are the best of the bunch. Total Baseball only compiles lists of matching seasons.


For fans who want very heavily filtered searches and don't mind doing extra work to piece together the numbers of current players, Total Baseball is worth having. I'll keep it on my iPad for times when I am out of wifi range or want to check out the photo gallery, but Baseball Reference and the Play Index will remain my go-to source for statistical information.


#ASKSPECTOR


It's that time again ...


@nyillini311 asks: "I hate putting this in #AskSpector but what can the Yankees do to make amends to fans who were at #bobbleheadfiasco"


The Yankees did the right thing by giving a free ticket to any game in 2014 (excluding Opening Day and Old Timer's Day) to fans who were at Mariano Rivera bobblehead night on Tuesday, when the bobbleheads did not show up on time, fans were given vouchers, and then waited on lines that resulted in some people missing more than half the game. Actually, Yankee fans who missed Tuesday's game waiting on line for a bobblehead probably came out ahead, given that they didn't have to watch Tuesday's game.


@zvsanders asks: "why won't you tell me your secrets for how to live my life?"


Never assume that a plate of cookies is chocolate chip. They may very well be oatmeal raisin. Always ask, and you will avoid bitter disappointment.


@coreypronman asks: "what's it been like moving to the most advanced team sport in NA in analytics, from covering one of the least?"


It's interesting, because I'm very much inclined to analytics, but in baseball it can be very dogmatic. There are a lot of people, for instance, who see no value whatsoever in wins as a stat for pitchers, and while I would never base a Cy Young vote on a pitcher's win-loss record, I don't totally dismiss it as a statistic. Maybe it's because hockey analytics are not as far along, but I felt a lot less lonely as a numerical centrist in hockey than I do in a sport where MLB Network devotes an hour a day to Brian Kenny and Harold Reynolds being as polarizing as they possibly can on advanced and traditional stats. Most people in baseball - most, not all, there are definitely exceptions, and they're generally the people whose work I enjoy the most - seem to have made up their minds already about how they feel, and my take is generally that it's best to keep an open mind while taking in as much information as possible, both traditional and advanced, for the full picture, while remembering that there are humans playing the game who are very much subject to day-to-day and year-to-year change.


@StubitsCBS asks: 'Are the Mariners going to become like the Pirates and suck for two decades before winning again? One decade down..."


I don't think that Mariners management is negligent in the way that Pittsburgh's was for the better part of the 21-year drought, and if things don't start to turn around next year, there's probably going to be a change of general managers. That said, the A's are going to be tough to deal with for as long as Billy Beane is building their roster, the Rangers are excellent at developing talent, and the Astros are going to start getting better in the not-too-distant future, so it's not like the American League West is an easy nut to crack for either the Mariners or an Angels team that has $58 million committed to Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols in 2017.


@DXFlyers asks: "first NHL coach to get fired this season?"


Peter Laviolette has to be on the shakiest ground in Philadelphia, but I'll go out on a limb and say that Minnesota gets off to a bad start and fires Mike Yeo for not living up to unrealistically high expectations.


@Steve31278 asks: "Sarsaparilla or root beer?"


I haven't seen sarsaparilla available in New York for a long time. I drink a lot of root beer, but if I see sarsaparilla on a store shelf, I'm buying it.


@joemadison89 asks: "Does the slowing of the Earth's rotation (this is really happening) affect a) knuckleballers b) lefties c) everyone but lefties?"


It's a few milliseconds per century, so the greatest effect is on Jamie Moyer and Jesse Orosco, both lefthanders. The answer, then, is b.


Jesse Orosco, noted left-hander. (AP Photo)




@sOUI_Alumni asks: "Will Cano be in pinstripes next season?"


I really can't see him anywhere but with the Yankees. It's not fait accompli, but I'll be legitimately surprised if he leaves New York.


@SirCanuckles asks: "law professor or appellate court judge?"


I don't think there's even a debate here: I'd much rather be a judge. You get to judge, you don't have to deal with law school students, and you get to wear a robe to work. Easy.


@tofuidol asks: "As a fan of both the Blue Jackets and Clev Indians what should I channel my inevitably crushed playoff hopes into?"


This is not an either-or situation. You'll get to have your hopes crushed in October, and get to have your hopes crushed in April. A baseball-hockey paradigm is the best way to spread your emotional distress as a sports fan over the year - just as one team breaks your heart, the other is starting anew. The Indians have a better chance of winning the World Series than the Blue Jackets do of winning the Stanley Cup this year, though.




@pete_m_anderson asks: "What kind of sandwich did you make?"


My lunch yesterday was pastrami, ham, and muenster cheese on wheat bread with mustard. It was pretty good. At this point, it's about clearing out as much from the refrigerator as possible before going on the road for the playoffs.




@GoldAndOrSmith asks: "How many mups would you have to light to be able to see them from space?"


As Fall Out Boy sings, "Light a mup mup mup, light a mup mup mup, light a mup mup mup, I'm on FIYYYAAAAHHH!" so we can assume that lighting nine mups equals one person on fire. These NASA images of wildfires in Portugal show that for a fire to be visible from space, it has to be about as big as the mouth of a river. Now, rivers vary, so let's go with something we know to be the size of a river because it has its own lake - Daytona International Speedway. The capacity there is listed at 167,785, and I would bet that less than a capacity crowd catching on fire would be visible from space. So, a ballpark estimate: you would have to light a million mups to see it from space.




@Lana asks: "if you have a son, will you name him Gene?"


I have a daughter, and Gene never came up in our discussions of potential boy names, so I highly doubt it. I would, however, consider Gene as a name for a goldfish.


@brendanporter asks: "What do you think is the DBacks most pressing offseason need?"


Starting pitching. This year's rotation did not go deep enough into games, and that proved really troublesome and taxing for the bullpen given how many extra-inning games Arizona played. The Diamondbacks need more power in the lineup, too, to complement Paul Goldscmidt, but Matt Davidson and Chris Owings are closer to the majors than top pitching prospect Archie Bradley.




@DenverRochelle asks: "what kind of laundry detergent do you use?"


I have no idea. I bring my laundry to the laundromat and pay for wash-and-fold service. It's only a little bit more expensive than buying my own detergent and using the machines, and if you believe time is money, well, it's definitely worth it. I can't stand doing laundry, so I don't. It's pretty great.


@Markussh asks: "if you could only have 4 toppings on hot dogs for the rest of your life, which would choose?"


Chili, cheese, mustard, and onions.




@DanJGlickman asks: "What is the worst non-offensive team name in baseball?"


Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, hands down.


@JamesSantelli asks: "Do you think MLB should expand to 32 teams within the next decade?"


Yes, because the playoff system will be better as a result. I'm also not really liking the interleague play every day aspect of having 15-team leagues. Todd Helton's last home game really should not have been against the Red Sox. That was weird, although it was cool that he homered.


@ihaveoreos asks: "what does @YouppiPuppy think of the new division names?"


I presume that you mean in the NHL, but it really doesn't matter because my dog only responds to his own name about two-thirds of the time. If I just started saying "Atlantic! Metropolitan! Central! Pacific!" I doubt he'd do much more than look up and wonder if any of that meant "dog treat."


@DSF456 asks: "Is the team who signs Shin-Soo Choo going to need a Brinks truck or a garbage truck to get all the money to him?"


Neither. I believe an oversized novelty check is far more likely.


Shin-Soo Choo is a free agent after the season. (AP Photo)


@holly_holl asks: "Is Spector a family name that was changed from its original form of Inspectorgadget?"


As I cannot sprout a propeller from my head and fly away, I'm sad to say the answer is no. I did have an Inspector Gadget lunchbox as a kid, though, and I'm pretty sure that it's still somewhere in my parents' storage cage, full of 1985 Topps baseball cards.


@MikeGianella asks: "Do kegel exercises REALLY work?"


I started researching this, and the words "fecal incontinence" came up on Wikipedia, so if there's anything you can do to even possibly avoid that, I sure would. Also, three clicks away from that page, I found out that Nancy Spector is the chief curator of the Guggenheim Museum here in New York, and now I want to find out if we're related and I can get a family discount on admission.



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